16:16 UT – NASA SWRC simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Spitzer at 2:56 UT 5/19/2013 and Earth at 11:59 UT 5/19/2013 (+- 7 hrs). Roughly estimated expected maximum Kp index is 5-6 (minor to moderate).
14:30 UT – Initial estimates for the CME speed are ~1200 km/s. A detailed computer model is not yet available but the CME is heading between Spitzer and Earth. Here is a look at the eruption that produced the M3.2 flare. The data are from the SDO/AIA 193 and 211 channels showing us the corona around 1-2 million Kelvin. There is a nice wave visible (you can see loops wiggle) along with mass motion away from the sun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=ik9XFjp8ll8
13:00 UT – At 21:36 UT (5/16) it gave us an M1.2 then not too long ago an M3.2 peaking at 8:57 UT (5/17). These are 10 times smaller than the X-flares. Here is a snapshot of the M3.2 from SDO 171.
credit: NASA/SDO/helioviewer/SWRC
